Flat tire again

Is a flat like a bus? I mean, do you see none for ages, and then three come along all at once? This seems to happen to me a lot, even when I eliminate the obvious common-cause failures. For instance, on Saturday, I went out for a ride, and got a flat, and fixed it by the side of the road. It was caused by a piece of glass in the tire. On Sunday, the tire was flat again, so I opened it up, and there was a tiny hole right near the valve, which I had to use water to locate. Possibly a manufacturing defect, but in any case, nowhere near the previous puncture. Monday, I had an uneventful ride, but this morning, guess what, the other tire was flat.

Statistical theory tells us to expect random events to cluster, and no, I'm not going to crank up Poisson's theoretical apparatus to decide if there truly is an anomoly. It's just one of life's little anoyances.

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Terry, CHEWING GUM on my front tire, twice in the last week! Wondering if there is a full moon about?

Posted by William R. Walling on August 03, 2005 at 05:56 AM PDT #

can you point me to a reference that suggests that random events will have a tendancy to cluster? that seems to contradict the point of randomness.

Posted by Dave Brillhart on January 31, 2006 at 05:40 PM PST #

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