Flat tire again
By terryh on Aug 02, 2005
Is a flat like a bus? I mean, do you see none for ages, and then three come along all at once? This seems to happen to me a lot, even when I eliminate the obvious common-cause failures. For instance, on Saturday, I went out for a ride, and got a flat, and fixed it by the side of the road. It was caused by a piece of glass in the tire. On Sunday, the tire was flat again, so I opened it up, and there was a tiny hole right near the valve, which I had to use water to locate. Possibly a manufacturing defect, but in any case, nowhere near the previous puncture. Monday, I had an uneventful ride, but this morning, guess what, the other tire was flat.
Statistical theory tells us to expect random events to cluster, and no, I'm not going to crank up Poisson's theoretical apparatus to decide if there truly is an anomoly. It's just one of life's little anoyances.