Scenario Planning for Your Career
By user12601034 on Aug 08, 2013
Why would you “scenario plan” your career? Scenario Planning is used to chart uncertain futures and possibilities. And let’s face it – careers seem to be on an ever-changing path of uncertainty, so why not plan for those possibilities?
I’ve been intrigued with the concept of scenario planning
since about 1995 when I was asked to participate on a small team to create
scenarios for our business and help define our "move-forward" strategy. Shell Oil
has been creating scenarios since the 1970s and is probably one of the best
known companies in this area. Using these scenarios have helped Shell predict future possibilities and move nimbly to
address them. Shell believes so much in scenario planning, that they've even published "Scenarios: An Explorer's Guide" for people who want to expand their scenario-thinking capabilities.
If you’re unfamiliar with scenario planning, the gist of it is this: you identify a problem and two major forces likely to bear on that problem. Lay these two forces on a grid (x and y axis) and come up with “stories” for each quadrant of the grid. The stories outline what the future looks like and how you got there. Then devise a strategy for surviving each of the scenarios.
Wired magazine wrote a “Guide to Personal Scenario Planning” using the example of an aero-space engineer and possible career scenarios. This is a great step-by-step guide to get you thinking about different possibilities for your career.
My career is in corporate education, specifically leadership and professional development. When I apply scenario planning to this, two major factors that might impact me are “free agent” employment where people bid on jobs they want and the need for “just-in-time” (JIT) content. My grid, then, looked like this:
Once I had this grid, I was able to create the “stories” for each quadrant:
And from there, I was able to create the implications of each scenario and possible actions I should take to prepare for each possibility:
Scenario planning takes some thinking - especially when you're first creating your list of uncertainties that will become your x and y axis. I also found that while extracting the implications from the stories wasn't that difficult, defining possible actions to take required some more thought. I tended to view actions from the "corporate organization" perspective rather than from the "me" perspective - possibly due to the fact that I've used this process in organizations, and that's what I'm used to.
Scenario planning isn't going to solve every career problem for you, but as you think about a career conversation with your manager, it might provide some ideas and possibilities that you've never considered. Yes, it's a powerful tool for business strategy, but it can be just as powerful for your career strategy!