Prophet warning


Nick Cohen, a reporter in the Observer, writes some good pieces in his "Without prejudice" column, and the one for New Year is one of the best.

This being the new year and all prophets are makeing themselves heard. So.... a prophet should be judged:
  1. by the accuracy of their previous forecasts;
  2. how well their beliefs reflect observable reality; and
  3. if they update their beliefs in response to new evidence.
I predict that most prophets will fall quite short of all three of the above. However, I do not usually make predictions so i am willing to change my mind if found wrong :-)
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