More Predictions for 2007



Predictions for year 2007 from Elliotte Harold, Adjunct Professor of Polytechnic University were published on the developerworks site of ibm.com. It's an interesting set of predictions and what cought my interest is the prediction related to the IDE market.

Quote: "What had been a rather moribund crop of IDEs really caught fire in 2006, proving once again that competition is good. Embarrassed by Eclipse, Sun poured some energy and resources into NetBeans, which finally started looking like a serious contender. By some measures, NetBeans had even surpassed Eclipse by the end of 2006. It has a far superior native look and feel and much better tools for designing GUIs. What it doesn't have is the Eclipse community. Far more plug-ins and third party products are based on Eclipse than on NetBeans -- at least an order of magnitude more -- and that trend only seems to be accelerating.

As for the year ahead, Eclipse is hard at work on version 3.3, which should be released in 2007. Sun will probably also succeed in getting NetBeans 6 out the door this year. Neither is likely to be a major release: they'll just focus on adding small features here and there, fixing bugs, and cleaning up their user interfaces (though probably not as much they need to).

NetBeans is likely to continue to gain market share at the expense of Eclipse. It's starting from further behind and has more room to grow. (Sun's relentless pushing of NetBeans along with the JDK downloads doesn't hurt either.) By the end of the year, the two IDEs will probably split the market, with each taking half.

Meanwhile, satisfied IntelliJ IDEA users will continue to wonder what all the fuss is about, confident in their belief that it's the best Java IDE available. However, most users won't be able to see beyond its $500 price tag, and thus its market share will continue to hover at around 5%."


I have one remark concerning the NetBeans 6.0 release - it is not exactly correct that it will be a small update, on the contrary, 6.0 is going to be a major release with many new features. These features cover huge editing productivity enhancements, support for JavaScript, JRuby and PHP, visual databinding for Swing in the GUI builder, support for Swing application framework and other major udpates. So I'm looking forward to see what Elliotte will say once 6.0 is out :)
Comments:

I agree with Elliotte on NetBeans is likely to continue to gain market share at the expense of Eclipse. But I don't think by the end of the year, the two IDEs will probably split the market, with each taking half. Eclipse probably will still hold relative more market than netbeans. But it is declining.

Posted by WilliamChen on únor 07, 2007 at 06:54 odp. CET #

I agree that his prediction is quite optimistic. Time will tell :)

Posted by Roumen on únor 08, 2007 at 11:28 dop. CET #

I'm a relatively new NetBeans user. What really pushed me, was the need for utilizing new JavaEE 5 stuff in an intuitive way. No eclipse plugin did this - not even the so-called "Web Tools Project". Actually, I'd say it sucked pretty bad (that's ~4 months ago). What I'd really love to see in 6.0, is Matisse-integration with OpenLaszlo. That would simply rock the planet! Keep up the good work, Sun-guys. :)

Posted by MartinK on únor 12, 2007 at 04:56 dop. CET #

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