New Scientist this week has an
excellent article on decision making. As I'm a Kepner-Tregoe program leader I'm interested in tools for decision making as Decision Analysis is one of the things we teach.
The text of the article is copyright but I hope it is acceptable to list the ten points:
1 Don't fear the consequences
2 Go with your gut instincts
3 Consider your emotions
4 Play the devil's advocate
5 Keep your eye on the ball
6 Don't cry over split milk
7 Look at it another way
8 Beware social pressures
9 Limit your options
10 Have someone else choose
As it covers lots of research into the psychology of decision making it doesn't go into any great depth but there are some illuminating findings in there.
Much of the research is about how satisfied we are with our decisions rather than whether we picked the best option. The two are related but not directly. This may be more important for individual decision making versus group decision making.
Some of the key points for me were:
- Don't avoid making decisions, things rarely turn out as good or as bad as you expect.
- Simple decisions can be analysed, complex decisions often work better with gut feeling. Not recommended for highly emotive issues.
- Context, social pressures, emotions and how we frame the decision are all significant factors.
- Too many choices leaves us less satisfied with our final choice.
In the context of Kepner-Tregoe Decision Analysis the use of rational process should avoid much of the FUD around decision making, at least that's what I find. That deals with items 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, and 10. As for the others ...
7 Look at it another way: One of the most important things to get right in the KT processes is the initial statement, the pithy synopsis of what it is you are doing. The wording of a decision statement is pivotal in the process. It's all too easy to colour your decision by inappropriate framing.
8 Beware social pressures: Either as an individual or as a group it's hard to avoid being swayed by everyone else. Good facilitation of the decision analysis process is vital and can avoid things like groupthink.
9 Limit your options: Faced with too many alternatives we usually screen them against our MUSTS and our highest weighted WANTS. For me, too many alternatives gives me analysis-fatigue
Point 2 is also interesting as it illustrates that human beings are surprisingly good decision makers, analysis is not always necessary or productive. However, for business decisions satisfaction with the final choice may be less important than the financial implications. Having said that, I often wonder if the mark of true and good leadership (political, business, etc) is productive and effective decision making based on instinct.
Perhaps truly good leaders make any reasonable choice in a complex decision successful?