Sunday Feb 01, 2009

Congratulations Pittsburgh, winners of Super Bowl XLIII

Congratulations to the Pittsburgh Steelers for winning a very entertaining game in Super Bowl XLIII.  I have to say I was a bit bummed as I was pulling for Arizona, and save for the first-half ending interception return, perhaps they would have won, but it seemed Pittsburgh was doing just what they had to do so perhaps they still would have pulled it out.

I have to give my computer some props as it nearly picked the game perfectly (Pittsburgh by 5.2) getting the win and pick against the spread.  For the playoffs I was a terrific 9-2 against the spread but only 5-6 picking winners.  But the Vegas line was also 5-6 picking winners so I don't feel so bad there.

So now we turn our attention to basketball but also track and field!  We just had the Millrose Games this weekend (Lagat won #7 in the mile), Boston Indoor next weekend, and a variety of good college action so stay tuned.

Sunday Jan 04, 2009

NFL Playoff Predictions Week 1 Update

With week 1 of the playoffs complete, it is time to update my predictions.

 My computer went 3-1 against the spread and 2-2 picking winners.  Details are:

  • Atlanta/Arizona - Took Arizona and the points which was right but had Atlanta winning.
  • Indy/San Diego - Had San Diego winning outright and they did.
  • Baltimore/Miami - Had Baltimore covering the 2.5 and they did.
  • Philly/Minnesota - Had Minnesota winning outright and they didn't even cover.

For the upcoming games, current predictions are:

  • Carolina by 7.1 over Arizona
  • Tennessee by 1.4 over Baltimore (pick would be Baltimore on neutral field)
  • NY Giants by 3.4 over Philly
  • Pittsburgh by 6.3 over San Diego

The updated Superbowl predictions are:

Team Get to Win
Pittsburgh
0.336 0.184
New York Giants 0.377 0.179
Tennessee 0.320 0.171
Carolina 0.294 0.130
Baltimore 0.208 0.118
Philadelphia 0.192 0.092
San Diego 0.137 0.077
Arizona 0.137 0.049

Wednesday Dec 31, 2008

NFL Playoff Predictions Vegas Odds Comparison

I made my NFL playoff predictions a few days ago but just found this story on Vegas' odds so thought it would be interesting to compare the odds of winning the superbowl.

Here is a table listing the Vegas odds, what that translates into as a percentage, and my percentage for comparison.  Since the article above doesn't list all teams I went here to get a full list.

Team Vegas Odds Vegas % My %
New York Giants
3-1
25.0

19.3

Pittsburgh
5-1
16.7
19.4
Carolina
6-1
14.3
13.6
Tennessee 7-1
12.5
19.7
Indianapolis
8-1
11.1
4.4
Philadelphia
11-1
8.3
3.8
San Diego
11-1
8.3
3.5
Baltimore
14-1
6.7
4.8
Atlanta
20-1
4.8
3.1
Miami
25-1
3.8
3.0
Minnesota
28-1
3.4
3.4
Arizona
40-1
2.4
2.1

As of this writing, it is interesting to see that the Giants went from 2-1 in the ESPN story to 3-1 where the 3-1 is a lot closer to what my computer had them at.  Perhaps I'm not so far off :)  It is also interesting to see that as expected (Vegas has to take their cut) the Vegas percentage is higher than mine except for Tennessee and Pittsburgh.  And Minnesota is the same.  According to my computer those would be good bets to place on average.

Sunday Jan 13, 2008

Odds for Conference Championships

My computer went 3-1 against the spread picking the underdogs in all 4 games and 3 of them coming through. The update odds for getting to and winning the superbowl are now:

New_England 0.718 0.481 Green_Bay 0.664 0.264 San_Diego 0.282 0.149 NY_Giants 0.336 0.105
New England is still not the odds on favorite to win the superbowl interestingly.

Friday Jan 11, 2008

Updated Superbowl Odds

Here are my computers updating predictions for getting to and winning the Superbowl.

New_England          0.537  0.363
Dallas               0.432  0.173
Indianapolis         0.245  0.138
Green_Bay            0.325  0.131
San_Diego            0.127  0.068
Jacksonville         0.091  0.050
Seattle              0.128  0.041
NY_Giants            0.115  0.037

Saturday Jan 05, 2008

Superbowl Odds

I know I'm a bit late with the predictions, but here are my computers predictions for the chance of the 12 teams to get to and win the Superbowl.

Before yesterday's games:

New England          0.567  0.382
Dallas               0.433  0.171
Indianapolis         0.255  0.143
Green Bay            0.341  0.135
San Diego            0.090  0.048
Washington           0.071  0.026
Jacksonville         0.046  0.025
Pittsburgh           0.033  0.020
NY Giants            0.058  0.018
Seattle              0.053  0.015
Tampa Bay            0.044  0.011
Tennessee            0.011  0.007

As expected, New England is clearly the favorite to both get to the Superbowl (56.7%) and win (38.2%), but it is interesting that they while they are the odds on favorite to get there, they aren't to win. If someone had an opportunity to bet the field against them straight up, that would be a good bet (according to my computer!).

And with the two games from yesterday factored in:

New_England          0.544  0.368
Dallas               0.453  0.179
Indianapolis         0.258  0.148
Green_Bay            0.324  0.129
Jacksonville         0.097  0.053
San_Diego            0.091  0.049
Seattle              0.133  0.042
NY_Giants            0.051  0.016
Tampa_Bay            0.039  0.010
Tennessee            0.011  0.007

Here it is interesting how the chances change. New England's chance of getting to the Superbowl go down, this because the weaker (according to my computer) Pittsburgh is now eliminated making the potential road more difficult. On the other hand, Dallas' chances go up because the stronger (according to my computer) Washington team has been eliminated.

Stay tuned, I'll try to update these chances as the playoffs go along.

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