Sunday Aug 30, 2009

It's Football Season! Schmidt Computer Rankings Have a New Home

The calendar says it is almost September, the days are getting shorter, the nights are getting cooler.  It must be football season!  And with football season comes me spending my weekends trying to get my computer ratings going again.

This year, rather than muddling up this blog with the occasional entry on my computer's ratings, I've created a computer ratings blog that I'll do my best to diligently keep updated each week.  I've already posted last years season ending college ratings and the NFL will be there soon.

Go take a look and let me know what you think! 

Sunday Oct 05, 2008

College and NFL Football Thoughts and Rankings

I am a big sports fan, as has probably been apparent from some of my blog entries, and as such am into football. I've generally been a fan of the AFC, particularly the AFC West having grown up and lived most of my life on the west coast, and as you would expect am also a Pac-10 fan.

In addition to being a fan and watching a lot of games, my inner geek gets the better of me and I dust off my computer ratings each year and have done so yet again and you can see them here. I've actually been doing them fairly regularly since 1991 when I got started after Georgia Tech's disputed championship as I thought there should be a way to objectively determine who is #1. I used Jeff Sagarin's ratings as my inspiration but have worked to tune my system to both have ratings that pass the "smell test" but also ones that do well in predicting games against the spread.

Over the years, I added in doing ratings for the NFL too and have toyed with doing them for college basketball, but it is most entertaining to look at the college ratings as that is where there is no playoff and one can argue for hours on end who is #1.

The current college ratings have Oklahoma #1, Missouri #2, Penn State #3, and USC #4. Going into this weekend Dallas was #1 in the NFL despite their loss with Tennessee close behind at #2.

In addition to doing ratings and weekly predictions, my system is able to project final records. Interestingly there are six (!) teams projected to finish the college season undefeated and in the NFL Tennessee is projected to finish 14-2 ahead of a bevy of teams at 12-4. It is still early though so things can certainly change.

So, take a look and let me know what you think.

Friday Jan 11, 2008

Updated Superbowl Odds

Here are my computers updating predictions for getting to and winning the Superbowl.

New_England          0.537  0.363
Dallas               0.432  0.173
Indianapolis         0.245  0.138
Green_Bay            0.325  0.131
San_Diego            0.127  0.068
Jacksonville         0.091  0.050
Seattle              0.128  0.041
NY_Giants            0.115  0.037

Saturday Jan 05, 2008

Superbowl Odds

I know I'm a bit late with the predictions, but here are my computers predictions for the chance of the 12 teams to get to and win the Superbowl.

Before yesterday's games:

New England          0.567  0.382
Dallas               0.433  0.171
Indianapolis         0.255  0.143
Green Bay            0.341  0.135
San Diego            0.090  0.048
Washington           0.071  0.026
Jacksonville         0.046  0.025
Pittsburgh           0.033  0.020
NY Giants            0.058  0.018
Seattle              0.053  0.015
Tampa Bay            0.044  0.011
Tennessee            0.011  0.007

As expected, New England is clearly the favorite to both get to the Superbowl (56.7%) and win (38.2%), but it is interesting that they while they are the odds on favorite to get there, they aren't to win. If someone had an opportunity to bet the field against them straight up, that would be a good bet (according to my computer!).

And with the two games from yesterday factored in:

New_England          0.544  0.368
Dallas               0.453  0.179
Indianapolis         0.258  0.148
Green_Bay            0.324  0.129
Jacksonville         0.097  0.053
San_Diego            0.091  0.049
Seattle              0.133  0.042
NY_Giants            0.051  0.016
Tampa_Bay            0.039  0.010
Tennessee            0.011  0.007

Here it is interesting how the chances change. New England's chance of getting to the Superbowl go down, this because the weaker (according to my computer) Pittsburgh is now eliminated making the potential road more difficult. On the other hand, Dallas' chances go up because the stronger (according to my computer) Washington team has been eliminated.

Stay tuned, I'll try to update these chances as the playoffs go along.

Sunday Mar 18, 2007

March Madness

March Madness is now well upon us and my bracket isn't doing so well through the first round and a half. I only had 22 of the first 32 games and have 5 of the 8 that advanced to the Sweet 16 yesterday.

However, I try to make things a little more interesting than just filling out my own bracket by filling one out for a variety of different systems and or rankings. Specifically, I have my own computer ratings, and I also fill out a bracket for Sagarin's ratings, and the two major polls. I am much more serious about my computer ratings for college football, but make a token effort for basketball.

My computer is beating me going 25 for 32 in the first round and having 6 of 8 so far in the second. Sagarin went 25 for 32 but has 5 of 8 so far. Just picking the higher seed would have gone 27 for 32 and 6 of 8 which is leading (not too many upsets so far).

Hopefully my picks can catch up, but it isn't looking promising ...

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