Friday Jan 02, 2009

Alabama was a fraud part 3 and College Bowl Predictions 1/3 Update

I was vocal mid-season and then again after the SEC Championship game about Alabama's being #1 being wrong, so after Utah's dismantling of Alabama in the Sugar Bowl I feel compelled to toot my computers horn yet again.

While I did not go so far as to predict the upset, it was my second best pick of the week against the spread (picked Alabama by 4, line was 10.5, best pick was Virginia Tech to upset Cincinnati which they did) and reinforced what I said in the earlier posts.  And by actually getting beat where I said they'd win by 4, it is saying that even my computer ranking them #7 (and I had them in the #7-#9 range since week 7) was high.

Now, my computer isn't going off the deep end and proclaiming Utah #1, in part because Alabama wasn't as strong as everyone was saying, but more importantly because Utah played weak opponents generally and some of those very close (4-8 New Mexico 13-10!, 3-9 Michigan 25-23), and in their games against good opponents only won narrowly and were fortunate to have most at home (hosted Oregon State beating them by 3, hosted TCU winning by 3).  Utah will likely end up #7 or #8 in my rankings.

Having said all this, my computer isn't right all the time :(  In the three games yesterday I went 0-3 picking winners and 2-1 against the spread.  That leaves me 17-13 picking winners and 17-12-1 against the spread.  Both are above 0.500 but you'd expect picking winners to be a bit better than against the spread and this reflects the emphasis of my computer being predicting against the spread, not predicting winners.

And while my computer has generally done well in predicting conference records, it has missed on a couple with the SEC (Alabama excepted) and the Mountain West being stronger than expected, and the ACC and Big-12 being worse.

Conference Predicted Record Actual Record
ACC 7-3 4-6
Big-Televen 1-6 1-5
Big-12 7-0 3-2
Big-East 3-3 3-2
C-USA 2-4 3-2
Independents 1-1 1-1
MAC 3-2 0-3
Mountain West 1-4 3-2
Pac-10 4-1 5-0
SEC 2-6 5-2
Sun Belt 1-1 1-1
WAC 2-3

1-4

Even with some of the big games already played, while teams have moved around the predictions for the final 4 games have not changed significantly.  OU is picked by 2.1, UT by 9.4, Ball State by 2.3, and UConn by 2.8.


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