Superbowl Odds

I know I'm a bit late with the predictions, but here are my computers predictions for the chance of the 12 teams to get to and win the Superbowl.

Before yesterday's games:

New England          0.567  0.382
Dallas               0.433  0.171
Indianapolis         0.255  0.143
Green Bay            0.341  0.135
San Diego            0.090  0.048
Washington           0.071  0.026
Jacksonville         0.046  0.025
Pittsburgh           0.033  0.020
NY Giants            0.058  0.018
Seattle              0.053  0.015
Tampa Bay            0.044  0.011
Tennessee            0.011  0.007

As expected, New England is clearly the favorite to both get to the Superbowl (56.7%) and win (38.2%), but it is interesting that they while they are the odds on favorite to get there, they aren't to win. If someone had an opportunity to bet the field against them straight up, that would be a good bet (according to my computer!).

And with the two games from yesterday factored in:

New_England          0.544  0.368
Dallas               0.453  0.179
Indianapolis         0.258  0.148
Green_Bay            0.324  0.129
Jacksonville         0.097  0.053
San_Diego            0.091  0.049
Seattle              0.133  0.042
NY_Giants            0.051  0.016
Tampa_Bay            0.039  0.010
Tennessee            0.011  0.007

Here it is interesting how the chances change. New England's chance of getting to the Superbowl go down, this because the weaker (according to my computer) Pittsburgh is now eliminated making the potential road more difficult. On the other hand, Dallas' chances go up because the stronger (according to my computer) Washington team has been eliminated.

Stay tuned, I'll try to update these chances as the playoffs go along.

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