NFL Playoff Predictions
By kevinschmidt on Dec 28, 2008
With the end of the regular season, it is time for my computer to make some playoff predictions.
First, a look back. For the season, my computer went 143-105-5 picking against the spread and 166-86-1 picking winners. For comparison I had the Vegas Line going 159-82-1 picking winners. So, I had a reasonably good year. And as far as the right teams making the playoffs, the highest ranked team that didn't make it was New England at #9 and New Orleans at #12. The lowest ranked team that made the playoffs was Arizona at #19.
Now, for the picks and predictions. For wildcard weekend the picks are:
- Baltimore by 2.8 over Miami - Even though they are on the road, the computer likes Baltimore better.
- San Diego by 0.6 over Indianapolis - Two teams playing well, but San Diego being at home makes the difference over the higher ranked Indy.
- Minnesota by 1.2 over Philadelphia - Again, home field gives Minnesota the nod over the higher ranked Philly.
- Atlanta by 0.8 over Arizona - Home field not enough to make up the gap for Arizona.
This is the first year I recall all 4 road teams being ranked higher. Interesting.
As far as full projections for the playoffs, here are the chances of each team making it to and winning the Super Bowl.
|New York Giants||0.402||0.193|
These predictions to take into account that 8 teams have to play wildcard weekend as well as the ratings of each team and who they are playing.
It is no surprise then that the 4 teams with byes are at the top of the list. Of the non-bye teams, my computer likes Baltimore the best actually moving them from #2 to #1 in the rankings this week. Of course teams like Tennessee and the Giants had nothing to play for and played a bunch of backups so a small part of any drop they had may not be fully justified.
Should be a good playoffs!