NFL Playoff Predictions

With the end of the regular season, it is time for my computer to make some playoff predictions.

First, a look back.  For the season, my computer went 143-105-5 picking against the spread and 166-86-1 picking winners.  For comparison I had the Vegas Line going 159-82-1 picking winners.  So, I had a reasonably good year.  And as far as the right teams making the playoffs, the highest ranked team that didn't make it was New England at #9 and New Orleans at #12.  The lowest ranked team that made the playoffs was Arizona at #19.

Now, for the picks and predictions.  For wildcard weekend the picks are:

  • Baltimore by 2.8 over Miami - Even though they are on the road, the computer likes Baltimore better.
  • San Diego by 0.6 over Indianapolis - Two teams playing well, but San Diego being at home makes the difference over the higher ranked Indy.
  • Minnesota by 1.2 over Philadelphia - Again, home field gives Minnesota the nod over the higher ranked Philly.
  • Atlanta by 0.8 over Arizona - Home field not enough to make up the gap for Arizona.

This is the first year I recall all 4 road teams being ranked higher.  Interesting.

 

As far as full projections for the playoffs, here are the chances of each team making it to and winning the Super Bowl.

Team Get to Win
Tennessee 0.366 0.197
Pittsburgh 0.354 0.194
New York Giants 0.402 0.193
Carolina 0.301 0.136
Baltimore 0.087 0.048
Indianapolis 0.083 0.044
Philadelphia 0.082 0.038
San Diego 0.064 0.035
Minnesota 0.082 0.034
Atlanta 0.074 0.031
Miami 0.049 0.030
Arizona 0.059 0.021

These predictions to take into account that 8 teams have to play wildcard weekend as well as the ratings of each team and who they are playing.

It is no surprise then that the 4 teams with byes are at the top of the list.  Of the non-bye teams, my computer likes Baltimore the best actually moving them from #2 to #1 in the rankings this week.  Of course teams like Tennessee and the Giants had nothing to play for and played a bunch of backups so a small part of any drop they had may not be fully justified.

Should be a good playoffs!

 

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