Bowl recap, Big-12 was a fraud, and Florida #1

With their victory last night over OU, Florida is #1 in my ratings by nearly 2 points.

1    Florida              96.620  13-1
2    Oklahoma             94.802  12-2
3    Southern_Cal         93.011  12-1
4    Texas                92.284  12-1
5    Penn_State           88.831  11-2
6    Texas_Tech           86.171  11-2
7    Alabama              85.982  12-2
8    Utah                 85.714  13-0
9    TCU                  85.566  11-2
10   Boise_St             85.296  12-1 

It is interesting that they keep OU #2 ahead of USC and that the other team everyone is talking about, Utah, is #8, albeit a 5 spot improvement from before the bowls.  As a reminder, these ratings are intended to predict games so this is saying that Florida would be predicted to win by 9 over Utah on a neutral field.

As far as the bowls go, the Big-12 ended up disappointing and the SEC did better than the computer predicted, and so it would be appropriate to say the Big-12 was a fraud since I made statements about Alabama being a fraud earlier this year (which ended up being true IMHO).  Predicting they'd when every game was a big statement but while they did finish with a winning record, more was expected.

The predicted and actual records by conference are below.

Conference Predicted Record Actual Record
ACC 7-3 4-6
Big-Televen 1-6 1-6
Big-12 7-0 4-3
Big-East 3-3 4-2
C-USA 2-4 4-2
Independents 1-1 1-1
MAC 3-2 0-5
Mountain West 1-4 3-2
Pac-10 4-1 5-0
SEC 2-6 6-2
Sun Belt 1-1 1-1
WAC 2-3 1-4

The predictions were mixed with a perfect or within 1 record for 6 of the conferences, but big misses on the ACC, Big-12, and MAC (all did quite worse than expected) and C-USA, Mountain West, and SEC (did better).

On individual game predictions, the computer ended up 19-15 picking winners and 18-15-1 against the spread.  I missed both the winner and spread on UF/OU, but if I had given Florida credit for playing a home game as many have said playing in Miami effectively was, I would have picked them to win.  But my policy on bowl games is a team gets homefield advantage only if they are playing in the same city/stadium that is home for them.

So that completes another season.  We now turn to the NFL for a few more weeks so look for more posts on that soon.

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