By john on Mar 16, 2007
I'm a long-time fan of Ray Kurzweil. Several years ago I bought one of his keyboards, a PC88, which he built based on his pioneering work on audio synthesis. At the time it was by far the most realistic sounding electric keyboard on the market.
Since then I've followed his work in speech recognition, OCR, music synthesis, and lots more.
I'm now reading his book "The Singularity is Near" to which my reaction keeps oscillating between powerful optimism for the future of humanity, and "What is this guy smoking?"
He dedicates several chapters to an analysis of Moore's Law and the exponential increase of the capabilities of technology that has been going on for years. He then extrapolates to the future with some extremely off-the-wall ideas.
For example, he states that by 2080, for $1000, you will be able to get a 2 pound "ultimate portable computer" that would "be able to perform the equivalent of all human thought over the last ten thousand years (assumed at ten billion human brains for ten thousand years) in ten microseconds."
I'll definitely want to get one of these so I can run emacs on it.
Of course, it's easy to make far-flung predictions for the distant future when there's no chance of anyone we know being around then. But wait, he plans on being alive at that time.
Wow, that's amazing. Or should I say, "I want some of what he's smoking?"