Monty's Mischief

Don't be fooled by the apparent simplicity. You've been warned :-)

Monty tells you that behind the three curtains are hidden two booby prizes and one desirable prize. Since you won the game show's challenge, you get to pick! You figure you've got a ~33% chance of winning, so you randomly pick a curtain and cross your fingers. Vanna's twin sister walks over to the curtain of your choice and is about to reveal your prize. Your heart is racing. Then Monty stops her and asks if you're sure about your choice. In fact, he'll help you out! He tells Anna to open one of the other curtains. That one contains a goat! Now, asks Monty, do you want Anna to open your original curtain, or do you want to switch? What should you do? Does it matter?

In case you give up, here is the solution:
http://blogs.sun.com/roller/resources/dcb/SOLUTION_Monty.html

Comments:

The USA shrining Dollars Three USA businessmen thought it would be a good idea to have a meeting for the afternoon in a local Hotel. As they were walking to the Hotel, the head cleark, said to his part time help; " take care of entrys while i am at lunch for an hour " Certainly said the eager assistant. The three men walked in and said to the acting clerk what is the charge for four hours for a room . 30 Dollars said the assigned entry clerk, " fine thank you " and each man paid ten dollars. The day clerk came back from his lunch and said any business? Yes, three men paid 30 dollars for a room for a business meeting for four hours. ' OH , I should of told you the afternoon rate for a four hour stay is 28 dollars. " I will take care of it to balance the books." The head clerk took out five single dollar coins and went up to the room and promptly paid the three individual gentlman one dollar coin. As he look at the two remaining, he realized that 3 x 9 equals 27 and gave the forth dollar to make 28. The single dollar he took back to the desk and added it to the 25 on the regestery and realized it was now totaling 26. Scratching his head, he said " what happend that we are two dollars short ?" A novices fun with the big boys. statistical percentum past and present chance theory past and present and a supprise. for sure "play it again Monty"

Posted by GerwingR on March 02, 2005 at 08:36 PM EST #

Shrinking: A story of a play on words. not for software programmers. However statistical percentum past. and chance theory present at the next option. is also a play on words. and not for programmers. cheers. R. T. Gerwing Nice outline on getting prepared for the real deal in presentation. thanks.

Posted by GerwingR on March 02, 2005 at 08:44 PM EST #

So the Embarassed head clerk realized that, the three gentlemen actualy owe him a dollar more 3x9 = 27 plus 1 equals 28 , the room rate. he goes back up and jokingly the men give him the dollar back. Back at the books the total of 26 is added by the returned dollar and now is 27. Where did the dollar go ?

Posted by GerwingR on March 02, 2005 at 09:08 PM EST #

If it were always the case, then you should switch because you will get the good prize 2/3 of the time. However, Monty Hall himself said in interviews that we wouldn't always do that. They would mix things up like offering money instead of opening a curtain. So if you do find yourself on Let's Make A Deal, you still need to go with your gut.

Posted by Kevin on March 04, 2005 at 07:41 AM EST #

or this http://www.hotel-stary-mlyn.com/rokytnice-nad-jizerou-ubytovani

Posted by Mare on June 20, 2005 at 07:49 AM EDT #

A story of a play on words.

Posted by Suzhou on December 04, 2005 at 04:59 PM EST #

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