2010 predictions : what rubbish?

Can the future be predicted? As has been noted in past blogs I am not a big fan of futurology. However, in the spirit of experiment, lets put 5 predictions in stone and in a years time lets see how many of those hold up to examination

  • The UK will loose its AAA rating status. This has big implications for any investment strategy and won't be isolated to the UK.
  • Python swallowing a Pig. Oracle will take some time to digest Sun. This is probably not a prediction, but is stating the obvious and is neither good nor bad. I don't have a view as to what will come after the indigestion, but it has the potential to be very powerful and interesting indeed. A good prediction as it is hard to measure.
  • The trend of core IT outsourcing will start to be reversed as it becomes even more obvious that the capital savings are outweighed by the increased business risk and lack of flexibility. Some of the slack will continue to be taken up with computing provided as a utility. Also a good prediction as it is hard to measure.
  • The catch phrase of 2010 will be "Good Governance". One of my new interview questions will be "What is good governance", start preparing here if you like me had no clue what governance really meant 6 months ago.
  • Using bad science to influence will become illegal (might take longer than a year), but there will be concrete recognition of the damaging role that false science plays in silent and not so silent disasters. The media will start to become accountable for the financial and medical advice they print (again will take some time) Dr. Ben Goldacre will be made a saint.
This statement does not constitute advise on what the future may hold. You should consult an IFA to adjust your profile of risk and reward relative to the future if you are unsure of any of the issues covered. It may in fact be complete rubbish, lets see in a year.
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