1.5% of 10 billion is 150 million
By bblfish on Sep 16, 2007
That's the number of people who will die annually of natural causes when we are 10 billion people on earth, with an estimated life average of 66.67 years.
That is over twice the current population of France. Or as Peter Sloterdijk points out on page 467 of "Spheres III: Foam" in the chapter on the history of man's relation to the dead - I am slowly plowing through this 800 page book - "that is the equivalent of 30 Holocausts, or 4 Stalin eras or three Maoist leaps forwards". The grim reaper is grim indeed.
On the other hand this should be compensated with about the equivalent number of new born children entering this world.
Sloterdijk states that a 1.5% mortality rate of the human population is equivalent to a 75 year average life span. I calculate that you can get 66.666.. times 1.5 in 100, ie. that after 66.66.. years everybody would be dead statistically - 10 billion to die in next 66 years! 10 billion to be born in the same time frame! which is the most disturbing? - ie we have an average life span of 66.67 years. To get an average of 75 years, I calculate that would be a 1.333% death rate, which then would mean 133 million deaths per year. Still a very large number.