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Super Bowl LI Prediction Using Oracle Analytics

Chris Garcia
Director of Marketing

The NFL Playoffs are nearly over. One more game. The game! Super Bowl LI (51) is upon us and we are ready! Do you have your plans together? Are you hosting or are you going to someone else’s party? Either way…it should be an enjoyable game. The New England Patriots are taking on the Atlanta Falcons and both teams appear to be evenly matched on paper.

Throughout the 2017 NFL playoffs, I have been using Oracle Visual Analytics to try and predict the winners. We are 9-1 so far and that’s pretty good. This is the last blog in my four-part series so as sad as I am to be done with this topic, I am excited to see what the predictions will be, so…here we go.

As in the past three blogs, I will be using the following stats to predict the outcome of these games.

  • Points per game (PPG)
  • Points allowed per game (PAPG)
  • Yards per game (YPG)
  • Yards allowed per game (YAPG)

Let’s analyze!

The Patriot offense averages 27.6 PPG and 386.2 YPG. The Falcon offense averages 33.8 PPG and 415.8 YPG. How does this look in chart format?

The Falcons have the better offense. That’s clear. They get more yards and score more points. However, they not head-and-shoulders above the Patriots. This suggests a tight game. Now let’s look at the defenses.

The Patriot defense averages 15.6 PAPG and 326.4 YAPG. The Falcon defense averages 25.4 PAPG and 371.2 YAPG. Let’s look at this from a graphical perspective.

These charts are negative charts. They identify the weaker defense. The Falcons are in trouble. Their defense is not very good compared to the Patriots. Combining this information with what we already know about the offenses tells us that the New England Patriots should be the 2016-2017 NFL Super Bowl Champions. With Tom Brady leading the Patriots, they should take full advantage of the Falcon defense. I don’t think it will be a blow-out but time will tell.

I hope this information helps you look forward to the big game! As an Oracle employee, I enjoy using our Data Visualization software to bring my stories to life. In a business context, savvy executives use this technology to improve their strategies with facts and get action around their ideas. The important thing here is that using data visualization can help us see information differently and make better decisions in a way that spreadsheets or traditional static business intelligence cannot.

If you like what you see, visit www.oracle.com/goto/datavisualization to learn more about Oracle Data Visualization and get your free trial.

Also - if you already have Oracle Data Visualization, here is the .dva file for this analysis:

Super Bowl LI

Password is "NFL" (without quotes) all uppercase. Enjoy!

 

Photo courtesy of Erik Drost.

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Comments ( 2 )
  • Ricky Friday, February 3, 2017
    This is pretty cool. I think you need to take weather and type of stadium into consideration as well. The Super Bowl is being played on turf in an indoor stadium - just like that of the Atlanta Falcons. I think the Falcons have a form of "home court advantage".
  • Rob Pearson Saturday, February 4, 2017
    Hello, just curious how you factored in quality of opponents? That could skew the data for either team. Interesting article and I look forward to your response.

    Thanks
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