Ad spotlight: 4 back-to-school shopping predictions for retailers

The 2020 school year was a lesson in adaptation as students and parents navigated remote learning. Outside the classroom, families also adjusted to new schedules as many familiar activities were either canceled or curtailed due to social distancing mandates. These changes during the pandemic also created a less traditional back-to-school shopping season for retailers.

But with states planning for full in-person learning this fall, families are looking forward to a bit of normalcy. And that means retailers have an opportunity for another strong back-to-school shopping season—both in-store and online. Here are four predictions for the upcoming back-to-school shopping season:

1. Stimulus checks and tax credit adjustments will drive spending.

Money from the past year’s stimulus payments is waning, but the forthcoming advanced monthly payouts on 2021 child tax credits could still help drive a strong back-to-school shopping year. Mastercard SpendingPulse projects that US retail spending will increase 5.5% during the July-September back-to-school shopping season in 2021 compared to last year.

2. Expect strong apparel sales as kids prepare for in-school learning.

While technology and office supplies drove spending last year to fulfill the needs for at-home learning, this year kids will be selecting the “right looks” for the classroom. In fact, 53% of participants say clothing and accessories are the top items on their shopping lists, according to a back-to-school survey from InMobi.

3. In-store shopping will increase, but online is still important.

With the vaccine rollout underway, US shoppers are planning to head to stores for back-to-school shopping, but many aren't entirely giving up the convenience of shopping online. Tinuiti found that 35% of respondents plan to shop in person exclusively for back-to-school items, while 30% plan to only buy online and 26% plan to make both in-person and online purchases.

4. Deals will drive the timing of back-to-school spending spikes.

Back-to-school shopping starts as early as June and will be well underway in July. And according to the National Retail Federation (NRF), 61% of consumers plan their back-to-school shopping around major sale events such as Amazon Prime Day or Labor Day.

What does this mean for advertisers?

U.S. retail spending is projected to increase this year as students and parents focus on getting ready to return to the classroom in style with new apparel, electronics, and other necessities for a busy fall.

And parents who return to the office and attend in-person gatherings with family and friends again may also need wardrobe updates. This presents an opportunity for retailers to entice both parents and kids to get needed clothing, apparel, and other items.

Reach the right back-to-school shoppers

Need to optimize customer targeting for your back-to-school campaign? Check out our list of back-to-school context segments and purchase-based audiences below. Contact our Data Hotline to get started.

Back-to-school audiences

Context segments

• gs_children

• gs_education_misc

• gs_event_backtoschool

• gs_family

• gs_homeschooling

• gs_tech_computing

General audiences

People with purchase behaviors and interests toward back-to-school shopping
Segment: Audiences by Oracle > Seasonal and Holiday > Fall > Back to School

Households with income between $150,000 - $250,000 that have purchased back-to-school products within the last 12 months
Segment: Branded Data > 33Across AudienceID > Seasonal > Affluent Back to School Shoppers

High spenders on all back-to-school product retailers including apparel, school/office supplies, and accessories between August 1–September 15 each year
Segment: Branded Data > 33Across AudienceID > Seasonal > Affluent Back to School Shoppers

Back-to-school seasonal buyers

People with purchase behaviors and interests towards back-to-school
Segment: Audiences by Oracle > Seasonal and Holiday > Fall > Back to School

Back to school: kids under 12

People with purchase behaviors and interests toward back-to-school for kids under 12
Segment: Audiences by Oracle > Seasonal and Holiday > Fall > Back to School > Kids Under 12

In-market shoppers stocking up on back-to-school products in the fall months
Segment: Oracle DLX (Datalogix) > DLX Seasonal > Fall Seasonal > Back to school – kids under 12

Likely purchases toward backpacks, board games, portable electronics, grab-and-go foods, and home entertainment
Segment: Oracle DLX (Datalogix) > DLX Lifestyles > Parents and Family (kids) > Households with Moms > Households with Moms of Grade School Kids

Parents interested in shopping for convenient and nutritious foods for kids’ lunchboxes
Segment: Oracle DLX (Datalogix) > DLX Seasonal > Kids Lunchbox Packers

Back to school:  teens

People with purchase behaviors and interests toward back-to-school for teens
Segment: Audiences by Oracle > Seasonal and Holiday > Fall > Back to School > Teens 

Shoppers in young men’s and juniors apparel department and also in-market for electronics such as computers and MP3 players
Segment: Oracle DLX (Datalogix) › DLX Seasonal › Fall Seasonal > Back to School - Teens

People likely to purchase teen clothing, trendy brands, video games, laptops, and smartphone
Segment: Oracle DLX (Datalogix) › DLX Lifestyles > Parents and Family (Kids) > Households with Moms > Households with Moms of High School Kids Back to School - Teens

College students

People who live in households with a prospective college student
Segment: Audiences by Oracle > Life Stages and Evets > Education and Career > Households with Prospective College Students

Back-to-school shoppers

High spenders at retailers of children’s apparel including clothing, backpacks, shoes and accessories between August 1st – September 15th
Segment: Branded Data > Mastercard US Geo Segment > High Spenders > Retail Shopping > Seasonal Shoppers > Back to School Shoppers > Children’s Clothing & Apparel

High spenders at department stores on apparel purchases including clothing, bags, backpacks, shoes, and accessories between August 1st – September 15th each year
Segment: Branded Data > Mastercard US Geo Segment > High Spenders > Retail Shopping > Seasonal Shoppers > Back to School Shoppers > Department Stores

High spenders at retailers of consumer electronics between August 1st – September 15th each yearSegment: Branded Data > Mastercard US Geo Segment > High Spenders > Retail Shopping > Seasonal Shoppers > Back to School Shoppers > Electronics

High spenders at retailers of family apparel, including clothing, shoes, and accessories between August 1st – September 15th each year
Segment: Branded Data > Mastercard US Geo Segment > High Spenders > Retail Shopping > Seasonal Shoppers > Back to School Shoppers > Family Clothing & Apparel

High spenders at office supply stores between August 1st – September 15th each year
Segment: Branded Data > Mastercard US Geo Segment > High Spenders > Retail Shopping > Seasonal Shoppers > Back to School Shoppers > Office Supplies

School supplies/resources

People interested in teaching resources
Segment: Audiences by Oracle > Education > Interest (Affinity) > Teaching Resources

People who are in-market for tablets and e-readers
Segment: Audiences by Oracle > Consumer Technology > In-Market > Tablets and e-Readers

People who have purchased printer supplies in the last year
Segment: Audiences by Oracle > Consumer Technology > Purchase-Based > Buyers > Computers, Accessories and Software > Printer Supplies

People who are in-market for laptop computers
Segment: Audiences by Oracle > Consumer Technology > In-Market > Computers, Software and Printers > Computers > Laptops

Households who purchased pencils, pens, markers, notebooks, folders, etc. in August 2020
Segment: Custom DLX (Datalogix): CPG School Supplies

Oracle Audiences empowers marketers to identify and reach their ideal audiences in key moments throughout their buyer journey––at scale. Contact our Data Hotline to activate one of our purchase-based audiences today or to apply contextual insights to your next campaign.