In this series, I use scenario analysis techniques to "predict the future." Please also read the introduction, "Power to the Nerds," and "Software Vendors as Business Consultants for the background of these series. Smallprint: these blogs on how the future of IT will look do not necessarily reflect the opinion of Oracle Corporation; they don't even necessarily reflect my own opinions. They are an exercise in scenario analysis, to broaden the mind and to help you shape your own future.
Everything has to be search-driven when working with computers. The effect of search engines on IT, and specifically user interfaces, has been enormous. It has even led to enriching the language, as we "google stuff." I wonder how long it takes until the verb "googling" is used even for physical searches. "Honey, the cat walked away, I'll be googling the neighbourhood now." Too bad the airlines can't google my luggage yet.
Is keyword search the ultimate way of finding information we need? Comparing search with a human shopping experience says it's not. The future of search could benefit from lessons from today.
Let's first look at how a human shopping experience would be like if it worked like keyword search. Imagine you are going shoe shopping. You go into a shop and show the salesman your shoes, and you tell them you want the same shoes in black. If it were search the salesman would either immediately say "no" (without even saying sorry, or that he could order them), or would come back with those black shoes in every size between 6 and 12, because you forgot to specify your size (how dumb was that?). In both cases the result is the same, you leave the shop. You no new shoes. The salesman no revenue. Loss-loss situation.
How does it really go? If the salesman has the shoes, he will ask for your size, or will measure it, and then will go. He'll also try and sell you shoe polish, a set of shoe spanners, and matching socks, although you didn't ask for it, but wanted it anyway. If he doesn't have those shoes, he'll tell you he'll check for a minute, and come back with something like it. In the meantime, you were walking around the shop and found another pair of really cool brown shoes too. The salesman will point out that the shoes you asked for were last season's anyway and that he has brought the latest model, something that fits much nicer with the fashionable clother you are wearing (hmm, what a nice person, you can't help thinking). You leave the shop with two pair of shoes, both better than the ones you thought you wanted, shoe spanners, socks and shoe polish. Win-win situation.
Search today is unidirectional. The supplier of information is the slave, the customer decides everything, is master. This is not in the best interest of both. Information demand and supply won't meet in an optimal way. The future of search is like in human interaction, bidirectional. This means that search engines need to become aware of what search process they serve, and ask the right questions back. It means that the search engine needs rules on how to interpret the answer, as much as how to interpret the question. Searching for an LCD TV with certain specifications, could lead to the search engine producing the result of a Plasma TV, because for the same price and specifications, the margin is higher (in the best interest of the supplier of the information). If the desired vacation in Greece is not available, perhaps a similar location in Turkey is a good option. If you search for a second-hand Jaguar in black, with not more than 100,000 kilometers, perhaps the dark blue one with 101.000km is fine too.
Innovation, to shape the future, often comes from comparison with other industries or similar processes. The future of Search is no exception.
frank
