In this series, I use scenario analysis techniques to "predict the future." Please also read the introduction for the background of this series. Smallprint: these blogs on how the future of IT will look like do not necessarily reflect the opinion of Oracle Corp.; they don't even necessarily reflect my own opinions. They are an exercise in scenario analysis, to broaden the mind and to help you shape your own future.
IT used to be the arena of experts. With a double PhD, wearing lab coats. They would talk in a language no one understood (although it vaguely resembled English), and computers were off-limits for most people. Today's different. Most people I know have more bandwidth at home than in the office. We all use computers. We're all online. But we don't program a lot ourselves. We just use 'em. In fact, we expect them to work as our iPod: out-of-the-box, perfectly and without reading the manual. Software is being promoted as easy to install and to use.
Well, the future of IT could be different. As a reaction, the trend could reverse. Power back to the Nerds. With all software being easy to use, a low cost of ownership, everyone being able to reap the benefits, where's the exclusivity? Where is the competitive advantage? If we continue like this, Nicholas Carr's words on "IT doesn't matter" become a reality.
In the future, software should become harder to use, require more programming, some software will become much more expensive, as companies require some exclusivity. Bespoke systems will make the difference, which is the ultimate price of software, being built for a single user or company only.
In this future, Open Source can go both ways. Either open source becomes a commodity and people use it just for non-competitive stuff such as printer servers. Or it is just a basis, and open source developers adapt it to bespoke software with unique and exclusive features and functionality, not used by anyone else.
The advantages of such a model are evident. Whoever has the information has the power. In an information democracy, the people have the power. In an information monarchy, the rulers have the power. And in an information-centric business, this is true competitive advantage. If transparency is forced by legislation and regulation, the need to exclusive systems is even bigger. If everyone has the same information, only the ones who have superior insight benefit.
It's the nerds who hold the power in this future. They are the ones making more money than the CEO. They are the only ones who can build and control these complex systems. The lab coats are back, this time just with some pizza stains added. It's not money or muscles that count, it's brains. The most popular guys in school, admired by all cheerleaders? You got it, the nerd! The guy or girl who can get you the concert tickets you want, who can help you with your homework, who can get you connected with everyone and everything, and who will make a ton of money.
frank
Comments (4)
Congratulations for the vision,i a almost nerd, remainiin your articles.
Thanks
Posted by Marcos Yonamine | December 26, 2007 6:19 AM
Posted on December 26, 2007 06:19
I like your post on "power back to the nerds" and "where's the exclusivity". I wonder, is exclusive software really going to give businesses a competitive advantage? If you look at the operations of a business, efficiencies are gained from using common products and methods thus reducing costs (and hopefully increasing profits). Those more efficient companies have a competitive advantage.
Now bring this model of reducing costs to the software world. Wouldn't it be cheaper to puchase COTS software that other customers have also purchased? Or use common methodologies, such as ITIL, to reduce risks & costs? The competitive advantage is from how well you implement, apply, and use these common products and methods. I have a hard time seeing a world where the cost of exclusive (custom) software for each company is cheaper than COTS.
I agree exclusive software would give more power to technology and IT people. And I agree that software will become more complicated, but hopefully not for the consumer. I like the simplicity of my iPod.
Posted by Tom Hudock | January 4, 2008 2:09 PM
Posted on January 4, 2008 14:09
I read your post with the most interest. The power will indeed be to the nerds. Ambiguity arises however around the use of the word 'software' in your statement "In the future, software should become harder to use, require more programming, some software will become much more expensive, ...".
I agree with Tom Hudock that user interfaces will (have to) get easier and easier to use, because of progress made in interface design and a larger variety of devices used. Control by voice, eye-movements or brainwaves will be applied more and more. This will lead to less and less controls, having more and richer functionality.
However, as user interfaces shrink and simplify, and tangible structures become virtual, a greater need will arise for people who are able to customize, to tweak, user interactions and process flows. A good example is found in the ERP area. It's right here that business processes become equivalent to computer programs, and knowledge thereof is becoming a strategic advance. By being able to tweak the software, companies are able to tweak their core processes, and by these processes actually the company itself. Another example is found in the salary paid to Google's Search Engine Optimizers. As the software becomes the company, technology becomes core business, and the nerd becomes CEO.
Posted by Freddy Holwerda | January 15, 2008 1:59 AM
Posted on January 15, 2008 01:59
Organizations have ALWAYS used technology to improve their performance and to try to gain competitive advantage. You don't think the guy who invented the abacus wasn't a "nerd"?It's simply bizarre to think that today is somehow different from the rest of history. The first typists were nerds, the first users of MP3 players were undoubtedly nerds. Yes, software will get easier, yes, technology will advance and use better methods. But this has always happened -- we just conveniently forget about it. Of course there will always be new technology, and there will always be a small number of people that master it first, and these people will be powerful. But because they tend to be better at technology than people, they're rarely in charge, and that isn't going to change...
Posted by Timo Elliott | February 11, 2008 12:57 AM
Posted on February 11, 2008 00:57