The Future of IT: In Conclusion
We looked at three different ways of how to create a futuristic scenario, in this case the future of IT. I described how the value proposition of IT could become more exclusive again, instead of aimed at user-friendliness. How a trend can lead to a counter-trend. I described how the role of software vendors and systems integrators can change, if we extrapolate the trend towards service-oriented architectures. I lastly described how the future of search engines could look like, if we compare it with a shopping experience.
Are the "Power to the Nerds" and "Software Vendors as Business Consultants" conflicting? The first scenario describes that IT is becoming harder to use, for it to make a difference, while the second scenario stated it becomes easier to use to make a difference.
First of all, great if they are conflicting. It shows there are multiple futures, and it should spark a discussion which future you like best. And trends and futures can coexist. Different strategies to reach the same. IT becomes the business itself. Some car manufacturers, like Volkswagen, are very successful in producing for the masses, others, such as Lamborghini, produce for an exclusive group. Oh and by the way, the Volkswagen and Lamborghini brands belong to the same group.
Of course, this exercise is not complete. I only used one example and one technique at the same time. Multiple techniques should be used to draw multiple scenarios. The possible futures that I described have in common that they all point in the direction of an increasing importance of IT. That in itself is nothing more than an assumption, that could be questioned. Anyone up for producing that scenario, as I couldn't imagine it? ;-)
frank
