Frank Buytendijk Blog

In this series, I use scenario analysis techniques to "predict the future." Please also read the introduction for the background of this series. Smallprint: these blogs on how the future of IT will look like do not necessarily reflect the opinion of Oracle Corp.; they don't even necessarily reflect my own opinions. They are an exercise in scenario analysis, to broaden the mind and to help you shape your own future.

IT used to be the arena of experts. With a double PhD, wearing lab coats. They would talk in a language no one understood (although it vaguely resembled English), and computers were off-limits for most people. Today's different. Most people I know have more bandwidth at home than in the office. We all use computers. We're all online. But we don't program a lot ourselves. We just use 'em. In fact, we expect them to work as our iPod: out-of-the-box, perfectly and without reading the manual. Software is being promoted as easy to install and to use.

Well, the future of IT could be different. As a reaction, the trend could reverse. Power back to the Nerds. With all software being easy to use, a low cost of ownership, everyone being able to reap the benefits, where's the exclusivity? Where is the competitive advantage? If we continue like this, Nicholas Carr's words on "IT doesn't matter" become a reality.

In the future, software should become harder to use, require more programming, some software will become much more expensive, as companies require some exclusivity. Bespoke systems will make the difference, which is the ultimate price of software, being built for a single user or company only.

In this future, Open Source can go both ways. Either open source becomes a commodity and people use it just for non-competitive stuff such as printer servers. Or it is just a basis, and open source developers adapt it to bespoke software with unique and exclusive features and functionality, not used by anyone else.

The advantages of such a model are evident. Whoever has the information has the power. In an information democracy, the people have the power. In an information monarchy, the rulers have the power. And in an information-centric business, this is true competitive advantage. If transparency is forced by legislation and regulation, the need to exclusive systems is even bigger. If everyone has the same information, only the ones who have superior insight benefit.

It's the nerds who hold the power in this future. They are the ones making more money than the CEO. They are the only ones who can build and control these complex systems. The lab coats are back, this time just with some pizza stains added. It's not money or muscles that count, it's brains. The most popular guys in school, admired by all cheerleaders? You got it, the nerd! The guy or girl who can get you the concert tickets you want, who can help you with your homework, who can get you connected with everyone and everything, and who will make a ton of money.